With Trump’s return to office, how might his presidency impact Chinese tourism to the U.S.?
To answer this, we can look at how previous U.S. presidents managed visa issuance for Chinese citizens, examining the quantity of visas granted and refusal rates across administrations.
*President Clinton: Initial Growth and Adjustments (1993-2001)
During this period, China-U.S. trade and travel were limited compared to today, with the U.S. issuing approximately 200,000 visas annually, mainly single entry B-1 visas for business purposes. In 1999, the U.S. expanded most visas to B-1/B-2 visas for business and tourism, issuing one-year, multiple-entry visas. By fiscal year 2000, the number of visas reached 246,000.
*President George W. Bush: A Period of Fluctuation (2001-2009)
In George W. Bush's first term, visa number dropped from 269,000 in 2001 to 194,000 in 2004. His second term, however, saw growth, with visas rising from 249,000 in 2005 to 372,000 by 2008. The refusal rate also dropped from 25% in 2006 to 18% in 2008.
*President Obama: A Period of Explosive Growth (2009-2017)
Obama's presidency saw the financial crisis impact visa issuance, which declined slightly in 2009. However, as the U.S. recognized Chinese travelers as valuable tourists, the refusal rate fell from 16% in 2009 to 9% in 2012. By 2012, visas rose to 999,000.
In 2014, a mutual agreement led to 10-year, multiple-entry visas, resulting in a peak of 2.229 million visas in 2015, with refusal rates stable around 10-12%.
*President Trump: Decline and High Refusal Rates (2017-2021)
Under Trump's first term, visa issuance fell sharply from 1.992 million in 2016 to 1.022 million by 2019. Although fewer visas may reflect a reduced need for renewals, refusal rates rose markedly, from 12% in 2016 to 18% in 2019. During the pandemic, visa approvals plummeted, and refusal rates spiked, hitting 79% in 2021 and 27% in 2023.
With the expiration of the 10-year visas from 2014-2015, there remains uncertainty about renewals, affecting the future of U.S.-China travel routes.
