Removal of “travel impediments” inbound to Macau, including from places beyond mainland China, “are not likely until next year”, says a Monday note from brokerage Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd.
“In the short-term, we expect GGR [gross gaming revenue] improvement to begin in the fourth quarter, but more significant travel impediment removals are not likely until next year,” wrote analysts Vitaly Umansky, Louis Li, and Kelsey Zhu.
They added: “We expect September GGR to reach mid-30s of percent of 2019 GGR,” with “October reaching approximately 40% of 2019.”
The memo further stated – referring to a Chinese national holiday period encompassing National Day on October 1, and commonly referred to as Autumn Golden Week: “Golden Week could be a wild card and will have impact on stock prices, but investor expectations at this stage are muted.”
A number of investment analysts has said Hong Kong contributed circa 15% annually of Macau casino GGR in pre-pandemic times. Only mainland China has currently a mostly quarantine-free travel bubble with Macau.
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