The recent emergency closures of Middle Eastern airspace have dealt another blow to China–Europe routes, which were already operating under tight capacity constraints due to the Russia–Ukraine conflict.
The most immediate consequence of rerouting has been a sharp surge in airlines’ operating costs.
For example, due to severe congestion along alternative corridors, Turkish Airlines flight TK209 (Singapore–Istanbul) spent an additional 206 minutes in the air—nearly 3.5 hours—resulting in more than 56 extra tonnes of carbon emissions for a single flight.
As fighting in the Middle East disrupts airspace across multiple countries, including Iran and the United Arab Emirates, and with airport facilities in Dubai and Abu Dhabi reportedly affected, the region’s three major carriers—Emirates, Etihad Airways, and Qatar Airways—have been forced to suspend or cancel large numbers of flights. This has effectively crippled the “southern corridor,” previously seen as a key backup route between China and Europe.
The timing could hardly be worse. Post–Lunar New Year business travel, returning overseas students, and tourism demand boosted by visa facilitation policies have converged, pushing already limited nonstop capacity to its limits. The result has been a severe shortage of direct China–Europe tickets and a dramatic spike in fares.
Economy class fares from Shanghai to Paris, typically around RMB 5,000（about USD 725), have soared to over RMB 30,000（about USD 4,327)—an increase of fivefold. On some dates, direct tickets sell out almost immediately after being released.
This surge stands in stark contrast to the situation just weeks earlier.
Before Middle Eastern airspace was affected, carriers such as Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways were aggressively discounting China–Europe routes. Now, with many Middle Eastern flights disrupted, bargain fares have been replaced by skyrocketing prices and widespread ticket shortages.
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly a quarter of the world’s seaborne crude oil trade, and about 13.4% of China’s seaborne crude imports come from Iran. Any disruption to shipping through the strait would directly threaten global energy security and, in turn, affect the broader macroeconomic outlook.
The combination of airspace instability in the Middle East and mounting energy risks is amplifying ripple effects on global aviation, creating a vicious cycle of conflict, airspace disruption, route congestion, soaring costs, and mounting pressure on energy markets.
