Japan’s major travel agency JTB released a forecast on January 8, projecting that inbound visitors in 2026 will reach 41.4 million, a 3% decrease from its previous estimate.
China, which accounts for around 20% of inbound visitors to Japan, has seen weakening travel demand after the Chinese government urged its citizens to avoid traveling to Japan.
At the same time, Japan may face shortages in flight and hotel supply due to labor constraints. Although the Japanese government has set a target of 60 million inbound visitors by 2030, inbound demand could enter a plateau phase.
While surpassing 2025 levels in 2026 would already be challenging, JTB cited “uncertain travel trends among Chinese travelers” as a key reason for the downward revision. Following remarks related to Taiwan by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, the Chinese government in November 2025 called on its citizens to avoid travel to Japan. Flight reductions and suspensions followed, and although Chinese arrivals in November grew 3% year on year, the pace slowed sharply from earlier double-digit growth.
Some analysts also point to the impact of China’s economic slowdown, noting that Chinese demand for travel to Japan is weaker than that from other markets. Even if bilateral relations normalize, supply-side constraints in Japan remain a concern.
Growth in international passenger flights has been sluggish. Under the winter 2025 schedule, weekly flights to and from Japan total 5,679, up 10% year on year but only four more than the summer schedule. As of January 2025, the number of airport passenger service staff nationwide remains 5% below pre-pandemic levels. Takayuki Miyajima, senior economist at Sony Financial Group, said that “given the shortage of airport staff, it is unclear whether flight capacity can increase significantly going forward.”
Accommodation capacity may also struggle to keep pace with demand. A redevelopment project led by Meitetsu Group near Nagoya Station has been put on hold after construction companies withdrew from bidding. The project had planned to introduce a Hyatt hotel, originally scheduled to open in fiscal 2034.
Against this backdrop, even if inbound arrivals increase, Japan may be unable to accommodate them. The Japan Research Institute forecasts that inbound visitors in 2030 will total around 50 million—10 million fewer than the government’s target.
