Data released by the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) on December 17 show that inbound visitors to Japan in November rose 10.4% year on year to 3.518 million, a record high for the month. Visitors from mainland China totaled 562,600, up 3.0%, a sharp slowdown from October’s 22.8% growth. The impact of heightened China-Japan tensions is expected to become more evident from December onward.
An analysis of accommodation statistics for foreign visitors staying in Japan shows that, among all prefectures between January and September 2025, Shizuoka Prefecture recorded the highest share of mainland Chinese guests at 45.0%. Home to Mount Fuji and located along the popular “Golden Route” linking Tokyo, Kyoto, and Osaka, Shizuoka is particularly exposed. As the Chinese government urges its citizens to exercise caution when traveling to Japan, a prolonged bilateral standoff could pose risks to Japan’s tourism industry.
The analysis is based on accommodation travel statistics from the Japan Tourism Agency, with the latest data covering up to September 2025. Nationwide, the share of mainland Chinese guests has already been declining since before the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019, reducing the overall impact compared with previous periods.
After Shizuoka, Wakayama Prefecture ranked second with a 37.0% share, followed by Hyogo at 34.4%. Osaka (30.9%) and Nara (30.8%) placed fifth and sixth, highlighting the particularly high dependence on Chinese visitors in the Kansai region. Yamanashi Prefecture, which also features Mount Fuji, ranked seventh at 30.6%.
Elsewhere, Tokyo ranked 16th with a 20.0% share, while Hokkaido ranked 18th at 19.5%. In prefectures such as Iwate, Hiroshima, and Yamaguchi, the share was below 10%. As inbound tourism recovers after the pandemic, many regions across Japan have been stepping up efforts to attract a more diverse mix of visitors by origin market.
Nationwide, mainland Chinese guests accounted for 21.7% of all foreign overnight stays from January to September 2025, down from 29.5% in full-year 2019. The figure stood at 18.2% in 2024. Meanwhile, the shares of visitors from the United States, Europe, and Australia are rising, while those from Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea have edged down slightly.
