In the fourth quarter of 2025, hotel market sentiment in China’s first-tier cities showed significant divergence. Confidence in Sanya continued to strengthen, while Shenzhen demonstrated resilience on the demand side. In contrast, market expectations in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou remained under pressure.
Among major second-tier cities, sentiment stayed cautious, facing a dual challenge of weak business and MICE demand alongside intensified supply-side competition. Nonetheless, differentiation persists, with some cities showing renewed confidence driven by unique local factors.
Across all demand segments, sentiment improved meaningfully from the previous quarter but remained in negative territory, signaling continued challenges for year-on-year growth. Meeting and business travel demand remain the weakest. The meeting demand index (-44) rebounded slightly but was still the most pessimistic, while domestic (-25) and international (-33) corporate travel demand also remained subdued. This indicates that tightened corporate budgets and cautious spending continue to constrain market recovery.
Reviewing the third quarter, the national hotel market followed a “rise-then-decline” pattern. Benefiting from the summer travel peak in July and August, overall performance topped out in August. As demand softened and the holiday effect faded, the median RevPAR in September fell by about 19% month-on-month.
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, most industry professionals expect this downward trend to continue. As many cities enter the off-season, the market is likely to remain under pressure, with rising operational stress.
According to survey, nationwide hotel occupancy is expected to fall by about 11% quarter-on-quarter, average daily rate by 2.8%, and median RevPAR by 13.5%. With no strong short-term catalysts, the industry remains cautious about its near-term outlook.
