Boeing Co CEO Dave Calhoun faces a multibillion-dollar dilemma over how to rebuild sales in its core airliner business that has sparked an internal debate and put the future of the largest U.S. exporter on the line, industry insiders say.
The company is reeling from a safety scandal following crashes of its 737 MAX airliner and an air travel collapse caused by the pandemic. Those crises have overshadowed a deeper, longer term risk to the company's commercial passenger jet business.
Boeing's share of the single-aisle jetliner market - where it competes in a global duopoly with Airbus - has faded from some 50% a decade ago to roughly 35% after the 737 MAX's lengthy grounding, according to Agency Partners and other analysts.
Without a perfectly timed new addition to its portfolio, analysts warn America risks ceding to Europe a huge portion of that market - valued by planemakers at some $3.5 trillion over 20 years.
But Boeing is not yet ready to settle on a plan to develop a new plane to counter the A321neo, and two leading options - press ahead now or wait until later - come with financial and strategic risks, several people briefed on the discussions said.
Boeing's first option is to strike relatively quickly, bringing to market by around 2029 a 5,000-mile single-aisle jet with some 10% more fuel efficiency. That could potentially be launched for orders in 2023.
An alternative option is to wait for the next leap in engine technology, not expected until the early 2030s. That could involve open-rotor engines with visible blades using a mixture of traditional turbines and electric propulsion.
Both approaches carry risks. If it moves too quickly, Boeing may face a relatively straightforward counter-move.
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