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How the pandemic is changing hotel forecasting in the Asia-Pacific

04/08/2021| 2:27:35 PM| 中文

Showing support for owners is crucial, as is understanding that the owners are the ones who have to make the tough decisions with their money.

Hotels in the Asia-Pacific region are poised to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, but which country will recover at what pace depends on a number of factors.

During the "Asia-Pacific Forecast" panel discussion of the online Hotel Data Conference: Global Edition, industry experts spoke about expectations for the region as well as how the pandemic is changing how they forecast performance.

Citing research by Tourism Economics, Jesper Palmqvist, area director, Asia-Pacific, at STR, pointed to the five factors that will affect the recovery of travel and tourism: vaccine deployment allowing a return to growth, challenges in vaccine distribution, travelers likely opting for closer-to-home destinations, leisure travel leading the way while business travel remains subdued and the lingering impact of the economic recession on travel. STR is CoStar's hospitality analytics firm.

In a time of multiple travel restrictions, many of China’s markets are doing well because they can rely on domestic travel, but some Asian markets, such as Singapore, Bangkok and Hong Kong need international travel, Palmqvist said. While demand should return in 2024 and 2025, as demand has slowed between markets, that long and deep trajectory means for markets like Bangkok that rates will take longer to come back.

By working closely with owners on the cash-flow forecasts, it builds the relationship by showing they have as much skin in the game as the owners, Perkins said. Showing support for owners is crucial, as is understanding that the owners are the ones who have to make the tough decisions with their money.

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