China is expected to suffer more than the US in outbound tourism over the next five years under a scenario of heightening trade war between the world’s two largest economies, according to an analysis by Euromonitor International.
The number of Chinese travelers going overseas is estimated at 160 million by 2024, instead of an upside potential of 165 million without a trade war, the market research firm said in a report released on Wednesday. Some 135 million Americans are seen making overseas trips by 2024, or just 1 million fewer than a no-war assumption, it said.
The scenario analysis is based on the US raising trade tariffs on Chinese imports by 15-25 percentage points and China retaliating by slapping higher rates on all American imports and restricting the operations of multinationals in the Asian nation. Euromonitor sees a 28 percent chance of this playing out.
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